Venezuela Watch — April 3, 2026
Day 90 Threshold Triggers Score Drop as Stability Holds — Next Threshold May 3 — Download Full Briefing
The VSTM Day 90 governance threshold has now been triggered, forcing the first structural score change of this cycle.
Regime Durability declines from 8.25 → 8.10, marking the end of a 37-day stability streak.
At the same time, overall stability remains high.
🔍 Key Points
Score reduction applied: Governance legitimacy drops, lowering CSM to 8.10 / 10
Stability still strong: Regime remains in the 81st percentile globally
First movement of the cycle: This is the first structural shift since January
Travel still not viable: Stage 1 — only 1 of 6 triggers met, though progress continues
🧠 The Real Signal
This is not instability — it is structural adjustment.
The Day 90 trigger reflects the absence of an electoral pathway
The high stability score reflects continued regime control
👉 The system is now tracking declining legitimacy within sustained stability
📊 Why It Matters
This marks a transition into the next analytical phase:
Stability remains intact
Legitimacy is now formally deteriorating in the model
Future score movements will follow time-based thresholds, not events alone
Next key trigger:
👉 Day 120 — May 3
📥 Full Intelligence Briefing
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