Venezuela Watch — Wednesday, April 1, 2026
VSTM Analytics · Post-Extraction Day 88 · Free Daily Intelligence Summary Covering: March 31 close — April 1 morning
How to Read VSTM · Five Numbers, Two Minutes
VSTM is the only intelligence product that connects Venezuela’s political stability, travel safety, investment risk, and legal developments in one daily update. Five numbers explain everything:
8.25 / 10 — Regime Durability (CSM) · How durable is the Rodríguez government? 10 = perfectly stable. 0 = collapse. Green = holding. Dropping = regime under pressure.
5.0 / 10 — Transition Pressure (TPI) · How hard is the regime being pushed — by the opposition, sanctions, and economic stress — toward change? Rising = things may shift.
0.375 — Affordability Index (VAI) · Monthly household income ÷ survival cost. 0.375 = 37 cents of every dollar needed. Below 0.5 = Severe Stress.
Day 88 — Post-Extraction Day · Days since Maduro was removed (January 3, 2026). Day 90 = April 3 — automatic score reduction if no election announced.
Stage 1 — Travel Viability · 1 = Not Viable · 2 = Conditional · 3 = Viable with Caution. All 6 triggers must be met simultaneously to advance.
Element 1 · Stability Scores
REGIME DURABILITY (CSM): 8.25 / 10 · No Change · 83rd Percentile 36 consecutive days unchanged. Regime durability high. 83rd percentile = low transition probability.
TRANSITION PRESSURE (TPI): 5.0 / 10 · Stable Verified electrical crisis drove last move. Position: Tension Building. Full component breakdown — paid tier.
Democracy Index: 2.25 / 10 — Authoritarian (EIU 2024) · VAI: 0.375 — Severe Stress ↓ from Issue 011
Full component scores — Regime Cohesion, Security Apparatus, Resource Revenue Control, Regime Governance Legitimacy — available in the paid Full Briefing.
Element 2 · Travel Viability
Stage 1 — Not Viable · Do Not Travel · Unchanged
State Dept Level 3 advisory active. US Embassy Caracas resumed operations March 30 — consular services phasing in. American Airlines Flight 915 (Miami–Caracas) Day 18 of 30 — zero incidents. Copa Airlines: Panama City → Barquisimeto · Maracaibo — operational. Next Stage 2 assessment: April 13.
Stage 2 Triggers · 1 of 6 met · 2 in progress
✓ Level 3 State Dept advisory in effect — MET ~ American Airlines Flight 915 — 30-day incident-free service — Day 18/30 ~ Zero US traveler detention incidents — Day 18/30 ✗ Visa processing restored — NOT MET (Mexico City only, partial) ✗ Airport security (TSA) · Copa Airlines PTY routes — NOT MET ✗ US consular services restored in Caracas — NOT MET
Full Stage 2 analysis, trigger criteria, April 13 assessment timeline — paid briefing only.
Element 3 · Today’s Key Development
Governance · Day 90 Score Threshold — 2 Days Away · SCORE WATCH
Venezuela reaches Post-Extraction Day 88 with the VSTM Day 90 governance threshold now 2 days away (April 3). Under VSTM methodology, absent a formal CNE electoral announcement before April 3, the Regime Governance Legitimacy component automatically drops from 1.75 to 1.60, reducing Regime Durability from 8.25 to 8.10. No electoral announcement has been made. The National Assembly is expected to vote to extend Rodríguez’s interim mandate — but that vote does not prevent the VSTM score reduction. This is the most consequential analytical event in the current cycle.
Full score reduction analysis, RGL trajectory, National Assembly vote watch — paid briefing only.
Weekly Summary
VSTM is the only intelligence product that connects Venezuela’s political stability, travel safety, investment risk, and legal developments in one daily update. Venezuela’s Regime Durability score holds at 8.25/10 (83rd percentile) — stable for 36 consecutive days — but a score reduction is now 2 days away. On April 3 (Day 90), absent a formal CNE electoral announcement, the Regime Governance Legitimacy component drops from 1.75 to 1.60, pulling Regime Durability to 8.10. No electoral announcement has been made. The US Embassy in Caracas resumed operations March 30 — consular services phasing in (Trigger #3 PARTIAL). American Airlines Flight 915 is on Day 18 of 30 with zero incidents. Copa Airlines Panama City routes to Barquisimeto and Maracaibo remain operational.
Forward Thresholds
April 3 · Day 90 — RGL 1.75 → 1.60 · CSM 8.25 → 8.10 · Issue 014 publishes Friday · 2 days April 13 · Day 100 — AA Flight 915 Day 30 · Stage 2 structural assessment · 12 days May 3 · Day 120 — VSTM second threshold · RGL 1.60 → 1.50 absent electoral announcement · 32 days
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